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User avatar OP points: 65 Reply points: 766 Location: New York, NY
This is sort of old news... but I can't find any solid thoughts from my colleagues, so I'm going to attempt to ask the QQ community.

So as everyone knows (or should know), Facebook is releasing a $5 billion dollar IPO; which in a sense means that they're selling $5 billion dollars of their company to the public.

How many of you are going to go for it when it's released? It may be delayed because Mike Zuckerburg will be heavily taxed (2 billion USD) once it's completely filed (he has options of up to 120 million shares at 6 cents per share). Deciding whether or not to buy the IPO is hard because Facebook's profits are unknown. Sure- revenue is posted, but we have no idea how much it cost to run Facebook's operation. (for the financially illiterate, profit= revenue-cost)

Facebook is predicted to be valued at 100 billion, which is equivalent to Apple, and not too far from Google. If its actual worth is way less, then investors will shy away from the stock- big time. The worth will probably be dependent on how much profit they actually generate.

I myself tested the waters a bit by investing a small portion of my wealth in Zynga's IPO on Feb. 2. Zynga is the company that is responsible for the shitty annoying ads and e-invites that spam news feeds; however, Zynga accounts for 12% (about 500 million USD) of Facebook's profit, which makes them entirely codependent. Since Feb. 2nd, ZNGA has increased about 30%, I'm thinking about buying futures at $18 USD in June. Thoughts?
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Site Admin OP points: 16 Reply points: 2,588
Zuckerburg rigged it so he'll always have control of the company and will choose his successor. I always worry when I see things like that.
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Squidget wrote:
Actually, a recent study echoed in several peer reviewed journals shows that disagreeing with David Holtzman increases your chance of being a moron by 62.5%.
User avatar OP points: 14 Reply points: 1,008
David Holtzman wrote:
Zuckerburg rigged it so he'll always have control of the company and will choose his successor. I always worry when I see things like that.


Not only that but it's an investment that is going to have a short shelf life. Facebook reached the saturation point of their service in most western countries a few years ago (something around 50% of the population) so it doesn't have much in the way of prospects for being a better generator of revenue in the future. If anyone doubts this, I have just one question for them: What's happening with MySpace?
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User avatar OP points: 65 Reply points: 766 Location: New York, NY
Yossarian wrote:
David Holtzman wrote:
Zuckerburg rigged it so he'll always have control of the company and will choose his successor. I always worry when I see things like that.


Not only that but it's an investment that is going to have a short shelf life. Facebook reached the saturation point of their service in most western countries a few years ago (something around 50% of the population) so it doesn't have much in the way of prospects for being a better generator of revenue in the future. If anyone doubts this, I have just one question for them: What's happening with MySpace?


Yes, but Facebook has accomplished what the CIA has failed to do since its creation: create a database of millions of people.

Also, Facebook is much more proactive in the sense that they come up with new ideas to make money- MySpace never did such a thing. Insiders say that Facebook plans to put companies such as Netflix out of business (or merge with Netflix).
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OP points: 70 Reply points: 692 Location: Bangkok Thailand
Short the IPO, pick up long position afterwards
User avatar OP points: 14 Reply points: 1,008
Chaos Be wrote:
Yossarian wrote:
David Holtzman wrote:
Zuckerburg rigged it so he'll always have control of the company and will choose his successor. I always worry when I see things like that.


Not only that but it's an investment that is going to have a short shelf life. Facebook reached the saturation point of their service in most western countries a few years ago (something around 50% of the population) so it doesn't have much in the way of prospects for being a better generator of revenue in the future. If anyone doubts this, I have just one question for them: What's happening with MySpace?


Yes, but Facebook has accomplished what the CIA has failed to do since its creation: create a database of millions of people.

Also, Facebook is much more proactive in the sense that they come up with new ideas to make money- MySpace never did such a thing. Insiders say that Facebook plans to put companies such as Netflix out of business (or merge with Netflix).


You will have to excuse me if I'm skeptical of such a business plan. It sort of reminds me of AOL i.e. attempting to provide every service possible to a customer so they can sort of seal off their customer base from large chunks of the internet.
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User avatar OP points: 42 Reply points: 1,805
Somehow i don't think facebook will be king for a long time. Sure they have a huge userbase right now but with these kinda things, they always come and go when something better comes up. I'm with yossarian on this one.
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User avatar OP points: 82 Reply points: 767 Location: RA id1
The whole idea of it merging with things like netflix, and hulu make me think about the long term future of where humanity as a whole is heading. It makes sense to have your facebook linked with your xbox, netflix, cable service, email etc... that way you can be better serviced and have all your entertainment needs customized. It truely is remarkable to think about how rapid the technological pace is.

the question i believe your asking is whether you think Facebook will be the driving force behind the "winds of change" or will they die out when the go public and become another has been like MySpace.

the answer is, nobody knows. how can you make a prediction on something that has never happened before? you know as well as i do that economics is not like building a bridge. you can't take any past examples and use them as a model, because the same trick usually doesnt work twice. in this case, we dont even have a past to look at.

i would say Facebook is a high risk, high reward. It will slow down before it picks up though.
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OP points: 10 Reply points: 113
How do you plan on actually buying this stock? Probably 95% of the shares will be purchased by institutional investors. Leaving 5% for everyone else until those investors feel like cashing out when the price is high enough. If anything I would say invest more into Zynga stock because it will actually be available. Because if you expected to make money from the Facebook stock, the Zynga stock should rise as well since one feeds off the other.
OP points: 22 Reply points: 1,529
anyone hop on that google+ train? i heard it was supposed to be the next best thing but haven't heard much about it recently.
OP points: -144 Reply points: 511
I remember thinking about it but then deciding that I need more information before committing the $ ...
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User avatar OP points: 14 Reply points: 2,017 Location: Internet Rage
I'm sure the timing on Yahoo's lawsuit is purely coincidental.
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User avatar OP points: 139 Reply points: 1,926 Location: Earth
http://www.villagevoice.com/2012-02-15/ ... k-killers/

""I'm not suggesting it should be illegal," Moglen told the audience of the Internet Society of New York. "It should be obsolete. We're technologists. We should fix it."... "Mr. Zuckerberg richly deserves bankruptcy," Moglen said. "Let's give it to him."
I personally doubt Facebook will be "killed", as the world is full of the too lazy to switch, but it's status might be harmed.

This doesn't really relate to the immediate question about profits, just thought it was relevant overall.
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User avatar OP points: 4 Reply points: 76 Location: Colorado
Regarding the issue of privacy, etc.

From a marketing perspective, the idea is to match people with products that they want/need while profiting the producer of those products (obviously, it's the reason you start a business in the first place). Is that really such a bad thing if a company or small business knows what people want so that they can provide it?

Obviously there are always going to be cases of misuse or abuse of information, but that will happen with or without Facebook. If it's just more closely regulated I don't see an issue at all. It's a good tool for businesses (corporations or otherwise) to use to guide themselves in the right direction.

Before people worry about the information that companies are buying, people really need to ask themselves, "Do I want to have a company giving me shitty products I couldn't care less about, or do I want them to improve their current offerings and offer me new products that I will enjoy?"

Honestly, I think the majority of the people would agree that the latter is better even if they don't like Facebook selling their information. Just need to keep in mind that the information they're selling will (in theory) enhance your experiences with the companies that produce your goods.

-- Edit:

As far as Facebook stock, I would definitely agree that it's a high-risk, high-reward investment. I think we'll see that it's going to be generally not worth it. They're going public really long after they've pretty much saturated the market with such a huge user-base. It seems to me that it doesn't have the same lasting appeal as Google (search engine, etc vs. social networking). Google going public made a lot more sense to me than what Facebook is currently doing.

Of course, none of this is supported by any kind of proof, that's just my thoughts on the issue.
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scoop of the century, someone call the NY times
User avatar OP points: 139 Reply points: 1,926 Location: Earth
They go way beyond product-placement advertising with the information they sell to third parties.

There is also the issue of compensation and choice - You should decide which information about you gets sold, to whom, and get a good portion of the transaction. Server costs? -> Decentralized network. The actual services Facebook provides aren't worth the level of privacy surrender that it demands.
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Why offer herds their liberation? / For them are shears or slaughter-stall,
Their heritage each generation / The yoke with jingles, and the gall. - A.S.Pushkin

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